Election 2016, November 6-12

After this Tuesday we should know who will be our next president.  Even after all this time, I’m not sure if I’m ready.

Any comments on the Electoral College?

How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair?

This article lifted my spirits a bit.

History Repeats as Farce, Then as 2016
‘We’ve been divided in much, much worse fashion before, like 1861 when we were actually killing each other.’

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355 thoughts on “Election 2016, November 6-12

  1. Sucks to be Comey!

    RMS – she is going to win. The RNC is effed. I am going to enjoy watching what happens with it.

  2. I am not surprised. It was a manufactured scandal after all. Neither was I surprised by the way Trumpsters lapped up the “scandal”.

  3. I am really pissed at Comey. There was no reason on this planet for him to be going out spreading innuendo. But now, the damage has been done and people think Hillary=emails. I also blame Giuliani, someone I detested as mayor for his rants and general insanity. Maybe he cooked this up. He has only gotten meaner and less sane as time has gone on

    Sorry, I shouldn’t rant like this but I am really pissed.

  4. Giuliani is pretty much ground zero for angry old white guy. And he is so sleazy! Birds of a feather.

  5. Kate, have you ever heard the recordings of his ferret rant on Ask the Mayor? I actually heard the original show ( I was an Ask the Mayor fanatic since the Dinkins days) but about 10 years later, I heard the show rebroadcast on a WNYC podcast, and that was when I realized, Giuliani was certifiably insane). He was a nut, and he got worse. Every week, it was “enemy of the week”. It could be squeegee men (OK, everyone hated them), or umbrella vendors (that sucked, I had always counted on the umbrella vendors to appear 30 seconds after it started to rain, and the Giuilani got rid of them), or transvestites in Times Square, or teachers, or kids in saggy pants, or,…. ferrets. When Bloomberg was elected, I was pretty upset because he was supposedly a protegee of Giuliani, but then it became apparant – he was actually sane,

  6. I’m thrilled that this mess all ends tomorrow. Back to our normally scheduled chaos on Wednesday.

  7. I don’t think we are going back to our regularly scheduled chaos. Trumpsters are going to be mad. HRC will get investigated over and over. It is going to be fun (insert sarcasm font)!

  8. Love Ami Horowitz shorts. Here he asks a bunch of white people whether voter ID laws are bad (yes, because blacks often don’t have and can’t figure out how to get state IDs), and then asks a bunch of black people to comment (of course we have state IDs). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odB1wWPqSlE#action=share
    It probably helps that he looks and sounds like a liberal.

  9. The additional lower level FBI “leaks” last week make more comprehensible (to me) Comey’s action in originally writing to Congress with no actual new developments (as expected, the relevant emails on Weiner’s computer were some sort of household parallel backup of the emails from Abedin’s computer already handed over to the FBI.) It was already known that there was lack of security around this private server and he had censured her for that. But Comey knew that the strong anti-Clinton feeling among many of his rank and file would lead to a far more damaging early Nov leak of the discovery of the Weiner backups when there was no time to do a review, and he defied his superiors to get out in front of that. He was able to get authorization for redeployment of resources to do a timely comparison of the new material to the existing material in time for actual voting on Tuesday. I think he was trying to do the right thing in an overall sense, rather than simply protecting the FBI as an institution from criticism. If he personally really wanted to screw Clinton over, he would have simply done nothing and let the leaks could come out in a fashion that would not have allowed for time to clear them.

    I doubt he will continue as FBI director. There is a routine submission of resignation letters at a change of administration, and my impression of him is that he would not want to serve under either candidate. (But see WSJ editorial) I am not sure either candidate would want him, either, for very different reasons.

    The FBI as an institution has been harmed by the entire process. At least the WSJ and I agree on that. Their editorial today also savages Comey as a political animal looking out for himself – and says Clinton should be grateful to him for all of his various actions over the last six months – that is what has motivated him. I don’t know why I should still be astonished that the same events should be subject to contradictory interpretations depending on political lens.

  10. Meme, he’s got a Trump yard sigh, might be in that admin, if it comes to pass.

    Kate, you’re right about the backlash. I’m more concerned about physical attacks on non-politicians than the continuation of trying to charge HRC with something

  11. Anonymous

    Where did you come up with the number that 21 million Americans don’t have id? Does this include children? Does this include people in institutions? I just don’t understand how someone can function in society without id. How do they get money to feed, clothe, and shelter themselves? I presume that welfare/SSI etc require some form of id. I know that employment requires some form of id. Cashing a check requires id.

    How does these 21 million people function?

  12. Cordelia,

    Think of my elderly neighbors. Why would they need an ID? They’ve had the same bank account for 40 years, they don’t drive, some don’t fly, they’re retired, etc.

  13. My most frequent use of my ID (drivers license, though I could use a passport) is to prove to the checker at our grocery store that I’m >21 (they check everyone). I guess 2nd most is when I travel.
    Oh, and I suppose to be fully compliant with the law that says I have to have my license with me whenever I drive, so really that’s my most frequent use, even though I get asked to show it ~ once every few years when I get stopped for speeding.

    I never get carded in other places when I’m buying beer or at the liquor stores. (Can’t buy wine/liquor in grocery stores here).

  14. Cordelia, I think in many states you just need your social security card to apply for welfare, which does not have a photo on it. Most of the Voter ID laws require photo ID. Keep in mind that many poor people do not have bank accounts and live in a cash economy. In the cities, many do not drive.

  15. Also a lot of elderly people have trouble finding the documentation needed for a photo ID, and they come from an era in which it wasn’t important. I do not think my grandmother ever had photo ID. Heck, she was never sure if she was a citizen or not (she was born in Canada).

  16. You can’t get a job without a picture id.

    “Live in a cash economy” Is that a euphemism for not paying taxes?

    “I think in many states you just need your social security card to apply for welfare, which does not have a photo on it. ” Good lord I hope not. Getting a fake social security card is ridiculously easy.

    “Think of my elderly neighbors. Why would they need an ID? They’ve had the same bank account for 40 years, they don’t drive, some don’t fly, they’re retired, etc.”

    Surely they buy something. Or go to the doctor. The doctor’s office requires id. The ER requires ID.

  17. I have been looking around, and it looks like most studies report that between 5 and 10% of adults do not have a state issued id. We have what? 250m adults in the US? So maybe 21m is a little high, but 10-15m doesn’t sound that crazy. I don’t know how they function, but I know my grandmother did not have any id and was fine. She didn’t drive, didn’t really travel, house was owned by someone else.

  18. My grandmother definitely went to doctors and hospitals without an id. She never worked. She did have Medicare. She bought things. She had a checking account and used cash. And a credit card. All without an id.

  19. I have accompanied my 80-something dad to a number of medical appointments this year. He needed to show his photo ID at least at the initial appointment. Personally, I have been required to produce a photo ID at the first appointment with each new medical provider, and before every medical procedure.

  20. Anonymous probably has anonymous sources, but the 21 million number does seem high. There can’t be that many voters or voting-eligible adults who are living so off the grid.

    “This tactic of inflating the number of ID-less voters began years ago with the debate surrounding and subsequent litigation challenging Indiana’s photo ID law, which the U.S. Supreme Court upheld in 2008 in a 6-3 decision and which continued in Georgia, Wisconsin, and other states.

    In the Indiana case, Crawford v. Marion County Election Board, the plaintiff submitted an expert report estimating that as many as 989,000 registered Indiana voters did not possess an ID.

    However, a simple comparison of Census voting-age population data to the state driver’s license records showed that only 43,000—or approximately 1 percent of voters—did not possess a state-issued driver’s license or ID card, and that number ignored Indiana’s inflated voter rolls, other acceptable forms of ID possessed by voters, and voters who did not need an ID to vote.

    A majority on the U.S. Supreme Court refused to rely on sketchy and incomplete statistics and quoted the district court opinion that the numbers provided by the plaintiff’s expert witness were “utterly incredible and unreliable.” ”

    http://dailysignal.com/2016/01/13/how-the-left-misreported-the-number-of-voting-americans-without-ids/

  21. Scarlett – I wonder if you just told them that you didn’t have ID what they would do. I suspect that they would still treat you.

  22. It looks like the FTC has a red flag identify theft program that requires certain creditors to implement identify theft programs. Certain doctor groups are exempt due to a law passed in 2009. And it doesn’t specify that a license is required. Just that there needs to be a program, implementation, etc, so I bet hospitals have ways of dealing with those who do not have photo IDs even if there preference is a photo id.

  23. Well, no wonder Anonymous has yet to step forward. The 21 million number appears to be based on a single, seriously flawed 2011 survey by the Brennan Center, a not particularly nonpartisan university research group.

    “In fact, the study most frequently cited by opponents of voter identification requirements—Citizens Without Proof, a report produced by the Brennan Center at New York University’s School of Law[1]—is both dubious in its methodology and results and suspect in its sweeping conclusions.

    The Brennan Center study suffers from sloppy—or perhaps purposefully misrepresented—data collection and biased questions. Based entirely on one survey of only 987 “voting age American citizens,” the report contains no information on how the survey determined whether a respondent was actually an American citizen. The survey could have included illegal and legal aliens, two categories of individuals that are not allowed to vote.

    The survey then uses the responses of these 987 individuals to estimate the number of Americans without valid documentation based on the 2000 Census calculations of citizen voting-age population. The Census figures, however, contain millions of U.S. residents who are ineligible to vote, thus contributing to the study’s overestimation of voters without a government-issued identification.”

    http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/08/without-proof-the-unpersuasive-case-against-voter-identification

  24. The idea that there is a significant amount of adults in the country who do not and have never had id is not plausible. These people have never held a job, never bought an alcoholic beverage, never cashed a check, never boarded a plane or entered a federal building, lived off public assistance without ever showing id, never used health insurance, on, and on and on…..

    Who are these people and who is supporting them? They can’t even buy cold medicine.

  25. Kate,

    I’m not sure what the protocol is when the patient lacks an ID, but the office staff is quite insistent, both in the pre-procedure instructions and and at the time of treatment, that a photo ID is required. I’ve spent a lot of time in waiting rooms and I’ve yet to see someone show up who didn’t produce their ID.

  26. The idea that there is a significant amount of adults in the country who do not and have never had id is not plausible.

    The number isn’t only those who never had a valid ID, it’s those that don’t currently have a valid ID.

  27. You can fly without an ID. My husband did it not that long ago when he lost his wallet. Probably is easier to do when you look like an UMC white man.

    And I was going to post the same thing as Rhett – I would suspect that there are many more people who just don’t have a valid license/photo ID rather than never having a license.

  28. I may have mentioned before a meeting I was in about a new payroll system. One of the issue was moving from a system that issued paper checks to those who didn’t sign up for direct deposit to one that issued debit cards where the funds would be be deposited. Several of the UMC people in the meeting found it incredible that someone could not have a bank account.

    As I mentioned last week, the rebellion against the elites aspect of this election is due, in no small part, to so many policy proposals, on both the left and the right, coming from UMC totebaggers who have little to no understanding of what it’s like for 10s of millions of their fellow Americans.

  29. I don;t think it matters what the exact number is. What matter is that these people, even if they are living in a cash economy and not paying taxes, have a right to vote. Heck, not paying taxes isn’t disqualifying the Donald from running for President, so I don’t think it disqualifies people from voting. The big problem is that the people most likely to be disenfranchised this way are the elderly, the very poor, and college students – precisely the people that Republicans don’t want to vote.

  30. Several of the UMC people in the meeting found it incredible that someone could not have a bank account.

    Lots of people don’t have bank accounts. However, if they have a job, they had to provide photo id, that showed either citizenship (drivers license) or legal status (resident ID).

  31. I have never had to show a photo id at any doctors office or hospital, ever.

    I can’t remember having to do that either. It is interesting to note that our most conservative regulars are also the ones who assume certain experiences are universal. I wonder if that’s linked to their political leanings and policy preferences?

  32. I have had to show my insurance card, but not my ID to get medical care. Actually, I didn’t have to show my insurance card to get the care, but why do I want to stop the office from filing the visit info directly with the insurance company?

  33. Rhett, I couldn’t even find the data supporting the claims in the report.
    Most reports and articles cite the 2011 Brennan report, which was based on the seriously flawed telephone survey.
    I get it that a sizable chunk of the population doesn’t have a bank account. But even a cursory consideration of the number of events/situations/activities that require a photo ID suggests that there aren’t many American adults who don’t have at least one. Certainly, there aren’t 21 million of these people living among us.

    http://newstalk1130.iheart.com/onair/common-sense-central-37717/a-long-list-of-things-you-12320312/

  34. college students

    My college student has two photo ids. Her student ID and her driver’s license.

    I think you are way underestimating people’s capacity to navigate the world if you think it is that difficult to get an id.

  35. Seriously, how can someone navigate college if they can’t figure out how to get a driver’s license or a state id?

  36. Rhett, I have had seven surgical procedures in the past 3 years, at 5 different locations in two states. Every one required a photo ID. I’m not making this up. Perhaps doctors don’t require photo IDs for routine visits.

  37. I think you are way underestimating people’s capacity to navigate the world if you think it is that difficult to get an id.

    I think you’re wildly overestimating the bottom 5%.

  38. MM, is there any college that does NOT issue a photo ID to registered students?
    The “very poor” need a photo ID to apply for welfare or food stamps or unemployment benefits.
    Elderly people may be the single group for whom photo IDs are a problem if they are not drivers, but even then you are overstating the problem. Most elderly people need photo IDs to pick up their medications or to receive medical care. Or to get their senior discounts.

    I think that it *does* matter what the number is. 21 million is obviously not the right number, yet is bandied about to make people feel guilty about supporting common-sense voter ID laws.

  39. Every time I take my kids to a different doctor’s office I have to show id. I have to show id for myself as well.

    It is interesting to note that our most conservative regulars are also the ones who assume certain experiences are universal. I wonder if that’s linked to their political leanings and policy preferences?

    I wonder if our more liberal regulars don’t have to jump through the hoops that the conservatives generally do and if that is linked to their political leanings and policy preferences?

  40. Scarlett – I believe you. I just think that if you hadn’t produced the ID, you would still have received your services. Having an ID certainly makes a lot of things easier. But most things can be done without a current one. And without evidence of fraud stemming from the lack of ID, not sure what the valid arguments are for requiring it for voting.

  41. “little to no understanding of what it’s like for 10s of millions of their fellow Americans”

    Exactly.

    My kids’ privilege, moreso than mine because even though I am white our economic situation was definintely UMC when I was growing up, was reinforced this past weekend. We (DW, DS3, me) went to visit our middle kid at his college; it was family weekend. We did exactly zero official, university sanctioned family weekend events. Mostly it was about seeing our kid, his housemates (we know 2 of the other 3 kids fairly well), and taking him and whichever housemate(s) accepted out to eat a few times. Meals were: local Italian place, big football tailgate (hardly any of the ~60 of us actually went to the game from 1030-430 Saturday, dinner at a renowned steak place (perfect for the unbanked / cash economy folks since it’s a cash only place), Sunday brunch at a pro-vegetarian, pro-vegan, LGBT-award-for-support-winning place. Maybe I saw a couple of non-whites at the brunch place. If my oldest kid were there, he would have said something to the effect of “just another day in top 10% land.”

    And of course my kids and all the other kids we saw / met around campus think this is just how things are for almost everyone. (Well, youngest might not, since he spent 10 days this summer working on the Navajo reservation this past summer so he knows how they live.)

  42. I think you are way underestimating people’s capacity to navigate the world if you think it is that difficult to get an id.

    I think you’re wildly overestimating the bottom 5%.

    Maybe, but I suspect that I interact with people on the lower end of capacity fairly regularly. Getting an ID is not rocket science.

  43. I’ve had to show an ID for new doctors since 2000. The hospital systems I’ve worked for all require photo ID and your insurance card if you have it. I’ve had to give my photo ID when registering my children. Most EHR’s have space for a photo ID. Medical fraud and HIPPA are two reasons why many providers require photo ID not to mention no one wants to perform the wrong procedure on the wrong patient.

  44. If you don’t have a driver’s license, you probably need to get a state ID. We had to do this for the seniors in our family because they had to produce some form of photo ID and were taking their passports everywhere (first they took their home country passport, after naturalization their American passports).
    Places like banks, doctors offices, apartment rentals want to see some form of photo ID when you establish a relationship with them.
    I can see Rhett’s elderly neighbors not having to produce ID because they aren’t changing anything.
    More important than photo ID is Social Security Number. That and the bank are the two places I stopped at first in my paperwork odessey.

  45. I don’t think college IDs count for voter ID, do they? I thought it had to be government issued.

    The only reason I had a photo ID in college was because I had a passport, which was very unusual for that time. I knew lots of kids who did not drive who had nothing other than their college id. There was a rumor that you could get a “non-drivers-id”, but none of us were residents of the state where I went to college, so it wasn’t that easy.

  46. Again, I think many states only need the SSN card for welfare, which is not a photo id.

  47. Maybe, but I suspect that I interact with people on the lower end of capacity fairly regularly.

    Honest question: Would it change your policy preferences if you found out that you were actually dealing with people in the 20th percentile rather than the 5th percentile?

  48. I have never had to show a photo id at any doctors office or hospital, ever.

    Forgive me for assuming things, but do you think this might have to do with your UMC bubble?

    The doctor’s office (for lack of a better term, it is an regional operations with multiple specialists, e.g. pulmonary, orthopedics, pediatrics, lab, other specialities attached to a hospital services a diverse patient base. There is no assumption that English is the preferred language of patients and a non trivial amount of the patient base is on medi-cal, which is the govt insurance for poor people.

    They ask for id every single time I go there, or my kids go there. Even when we have showed up at the ER with an emergency, they asked for id.

    If I buy alcohol at Target, they ask for id, even though it has been decades since I was under age.

    Every new employee we hire has to show id, because we have to be able to demonstrate that every employee is legal.

    Maybe it is possible to live UMC without an id, but I don’t think it is very feasible to be lower middle class without one.

  49. I am almost certain that HIPAA does not require a photo ID. As far as I can tell, the big legal change was the FTC requirements but there are a lot of exceptions to it. So, I remain unconvinced that ID is legally required. Maybe preferred. Maybe a provider policy. Maybe even part of an ins contract to bill for services. But I am open to being convinced if someone can actually point to something.

  50. Actually we didn’t know about the state ID, until our seniors were told that they should get that instead of carrying their passports.

  51. HIPAA does not require a photo ID. And when I worked in healthcare IT, we were writing software to track usage of insurance by patients, mainly to try to guess if a given patient was covered even if that patient had no idea (and yes, this was a big problem – a lot of the patients at our hospitals were so clueless that they had no idea if they were covered or not). Anyway, one of the big problems for us was the fact that many patients were “sharing” their insurance cards. Clearly our hospitals were not asking for photo ID. Maybe they should have, but they weren’t!

  52. You don’t need ID for UI.

    You need an ID for a job. You can’t get unemployment insurance without first having a job. You have to demonstrate that you are in the country legally, which requires some form of id.

  53. According to this article, in Texas “A state handgun license qualifies, but a state university identification card does not. “. This was written in 2014 so maybe they have changed? But this shows clear favoritism towards one type of voter over another

    You can get a Texas state university id card without being a state resident. So, it clearly shows favoritism for texas residents in being able to vote in texas elections.

  54. Cordelia, not asking for ID has nothing to do with UMC privilege. The hospitals we were working with mainly served uninsured, very poor patients – and they were not asking for photo ID. Probably because it would have been problematic in that population

  55. “The lawyers also point to the state’s decision to allow military and veteran identification cards, but not student IDs, as “strong evidence that the legislature wanted to make it difficult for young citizens to vote.”

    Do military or veteran ID cards indicate state of residence?

  56. You need an ID for a job.

    Do you now? Well that’s a relief, I thought we had a big issue with undocumented workers. But, apparently not.

  57. Kate HIPAA does not require a photo ID but telling one Mrs. Jones about the other Mrs. Jones STD’s is a problem. Hence why a provider may want Mrs. Jones to show an ID to prove that s/he is speaking to the right one. If the provider discloses protected information then the provider is subject to many ramifications. HIPPA carries very big fines not to mention the hit to the reputation. Any system or provider that has had an issue with this or known of one takes it very seriously and is looking for ways to not run afoul of the regulations. Having a patient show an ID is one way to do make sure you stay on the right side of the regulations.

    And yes my example is meant to be shocking.

  58. Honest question: Would it change your policy preferences if you found out that you were actually dealing with people in the 20th percentile rather than the 5th percentile?

    I don’t know. The requirements for getting a state id are so minimal that I am hard pressed to see how someone can’t get it done.

    Getting a state id involves going to the DMV, waiting in line or making an appointment, and paying a small fee, no fee for senior citizens, and providing one of the documents below:

    US Birth Certificate (certified copy from state or local vital statistics office)
    US Certificate of Birth Abroad or Report of Birth Abroad
    Federal Proof of Indian Blood Degree
    USCIS American Indian Card
    Birth Certificate or passport issued from a US Territory
    US Passport
    US Military Identification Cards (Active or reserve duty, dependent of a military member, retired member, discharged from service, medical/religious personnel)
    Certificate of Naturalization or Citizenship
    Northern Mariana Card
    USCIS US Citizen ID Card
    Permanent Resident Card
    Temporary Resident Identification Card
    Canadian Passport/Birth Certificate
    Non-resident Alien Canadian Border Crossing Card
    Valid foreign passport with a valid Record of Arrival/Departure (form I-94)
    “Processed for I-551” stamped in a valid foreign passport
    Permanent Resident Re-entry Permit
    Refugee travel document
    Certified court order or judgment issued from a court of competent jurisdiction. Must contain name, birth date, place of birth, legal presence status, and judge’s signature.
    Certification from California Department of Corrections or California Youth Authority
    Employment Authorization Card (I-776)
    Valid I-94 stamped “Refugee,” “Parole or Parolee,” “Asylee,” or Section 207, Section 208, Section 209, Section 212d(2), HP or PIP
    Valid I-94 with attached photo stamped “Processed for I-551 temporary evidence of lawful admission for permanent residence”
    Notice of Action (I-797 Approved Petition) – must indicate approved extension of stay or change in status that grants temporary or permanent residency, or indicates that an original, duplicate or renewal Resident Alien card is forthcoming.
    Immigration judge’s order granting asylum
    Mexican Border Crossing Card with valid I-94
    U.S. Border Crossing Identification card with valid I-94

  59. Getting a state id involves going to the DMV,

    Which is super easy for the elderly and disabled.

  60. liberal friends, I won’t be able to convince DH to vote for Hilary , but he keeps saying he is surprised someone of my ethical standards (a CPA) could vote for her. he is voting 3rd party. he can’t get over the emails and lying to the FBI. I can’t even talk about this election with him any more…

    but any good responses for him?

  61. You need an ID for a job.

    Do you now? Well that’s a relief, I thought we had a big issue with undocumented workers. But, apparently not.

    From what I’ve heard, it is really easy to get both fake and legitimate ids. Employees have to show one. I’m assuming that the ones I see are legit. But, we all know there are lots of ways to acquire resident alien id and social security numbers are constantly reused.

  62. Usually – I agree that there are reasons why a provider will ask for ID. I am just not convinced that it is an actual requirement. And that those reasons then translate to reasons to requiring the same thing for voting. Despite what Trump would like us to believe, voter fraud is actually very, very low and there doesn’t appear to be much evidence that it is reduced by these ID laws. And I am open to being convinced otherwise.

  63. Going to the DMV for anything is a huge PITA that sucks up lots of time during working hours. If you are an hourly worker, say a restaurant delivery person or bodega worker, you will have to take time off from work and not get paid. You need someone to give you a ride (assuming you don’t drive) and wait around with you. The last time I had to go to DMV, I had to get there well before opening to get into the line, and I was there for 3 hours, not counting the time it took me to get there and back.

  64. There is a difference between having an ID, and having an ID that is a valid form of identification in order to vote. Many places except an expired drivers license as proof of identification, but for voting it has to be within something like four years. So something older will not allow you to vote. College IDs are not considered a valid ID for purposes of voting. So I suspect that the number without a valid ID for voting would be somewhat higher than the overall number lacking ID, butI agree that 21 million of Voter age sounds way too high.

    When I think of people without a valid ID for voting, I think primarily of the elderly who no longer drive, but are able to use their expired drivers license for whatever else they need.

    I have to show my insurance card and drivers license every single time I go to the doctors office, no matter how frequently I come in

  65. Rhett – not super easy to get to the DMV when you don’t know where it is or how to get there. Usually done by asking a favor of someone who has transportation. Or getting dropped there and then walking back along the highway, hoping you are going the correct way. And people trying to pick you up (for good or bad reasons). Your friends thinking you are mad and why didn’t you call from a pay phone to give you a ride back.

  66. I have been watching Eyes on the Prize, the famous documentary about the civil rights movement with my kids. Voter suppression of course was very real and very horrible in the Jim Crow South. They had many ways to do it, but one of the most insidious was simply to set registration up so that it would be very difficult and time consuming, making sure that poor blacks would have particular difficulties with registering because they wouldn’t be able to sacrifice the time. This actually hit poor rural whites too.

  67. Using a government service is irritating and time consuming?

    When it comes to the NY DMV, yep-a-doodle. It all has to do with funding and priorities. I have dealt with many government offices that were pleasant and efficient, but never a DMV.

  68. I still can’t get over this photo ID at the doctors things. I am always asked for insurance card, even when they darn well know me. But never a photo ID. That is so weird

  69. In MA they update the wait times at the offices so you can go when it’s not super busy. Or you can go to a branch that’s not super busy. I usually go to the one in Watertown where the current wait for a license is 14 min and registration is 16 minutes.

    http://www.massrmv.com/BranchMap.aspx

  70. Rhett – do you have to go in person for license renewal and registration renewal ?

    You can do both online but every 10 years you need to go in to get a new picture.

  71. “Going to the DMV for anything is a huge PITA that sucks up lots of time during working hours. If you are an hourly worker, say a restaurant delivery person or bodega worker, you will have to take time off from work and not get paid.”

    Chances are very good that you needed a driver’s license in order to get that job in the first place. Yeah, it’s a time sink but voting on Election day is also a huge PITA that sucks up a lot of time during working hours for those very same hourly workers. It’s hard to argue that requiring them to visit the DMV once every few years to get a photo ID is an enormous obstacle that will prevent them from voting. And many states have streamlined their DMV operations so that you can visit on Saturday or at a shopping mall or, as Rhett pointed out, at non-busy times.

  72. Here in the midwest our DMV is actually quite user-friendly. When we moved here, I was able to get a driver’s license and register three cars in under an hour. Amazingly better than Virginia at that time. I don’t understand why NY, a state with high income taxes, can’t properly fund the state government division that nearly all residents have to work with.

  73. voting on Election day is also a huge PITA that sucks up a lot of time during working hours for those very same hourly workers.

    They have early voting here in MA so you can go on weekends and after hours starting October 24th.

  74. MM – come visit. I’ll take you to the DMV 4.5 miles from my house. We’ll get there about 825am. It opens at 830. You should be out of there by 9. (sure the ~6 hours each way from your house to mine will be a time suck, but you’ll be ok with the DMV experience).

  75. I don’t understand why NY, a state with high income taxes, can’t properly fund the state government division that nearly all residents have to work with.

    Scarlett, at least in our county the DMV offices are actually run by the county clerk’s office. I don’t know all the organizational and financial niceties of the arrangement but I know it’s not unique to our county. But because it’s done this way I think the local control leads to better service. I’m sure in some places the DMV is just run by the state.

  76. “You need someone to give you a ride (assuming you don’t drive) and wait around with you. ”

    In the NYC area you can take public transportation, and you can make an appointment ahead of time so that you’re actually in and out within an hour. I was impressed with the efficiency when a young person I know recently did this with minimal problem, but I can see an elderly person having difficulty.

  77. I’m thankful that in MN we voted down the voter ID state constitution amendment in 2012. The amendment was a solution for a problem that didn’t exist. It would have been costly to implement and harmful to those who aren’t able to get an ID easily. MN has one of the highest voter turnouts in the county, and I believe we make it very easy for voters to register (same day registration etc.) We had a statewide recount for US Senator and voter fraud wasn’t found.

    I’m very excited to go vote tomorrow. I will be bringing my kids. I want to cry every election as it really brings home how great this country is – the right to vote, to engage in peaceful elections and transitions of power.

    I can imagine the difficulty for some people to get proper ID. I struggled trying to figure out how to get a passport, and most days I pass for someone with higher than average IQ.

  78. At the government offices here I have been to service has been quite good. The employees are very patient explaining to people what they need if they don’t have the correct document.

    This is in stark contrast to getting a home country document for my kids so that they can visit there without a visa. The home country asked for a ton of documents, which I submitted, then they returned the whole packet to me asking for two additional documents on the list. I am very good at doing paperwork but that whole process took six months and I couldn’t take my DD when I went to visit. I just don’t want to deal with them again or look at their improved website.

  79. “I was impressed with the efficiency when a young person I know recently did this with minimal problem, but I can see an elderly person having difficulty.”

    I can see elderly people having difficulty registering to vote in the first place (say, after moving to assisted living), which requires jumping through a few hoops and with voting itself. The additional requirement of a photo ID doesn’t seem significantly more burdensome.

    “They have early voting here in MA so you can go on weekends and after hours starting October 24th.”

    They have early voting in Chicago too. Sunday morning, there were at least 40 people in a line outside the Lakeview public library branch, in addition to whatever line was inside. Perhaps reflecting the demographics of that precinct, the line was nearly all white, Totebagger types under 45 who were glued to their devices. No senior citizens or bodega workers in sight.

    No matter how you arrange it, voting involves a certain level of inconvenience.

  80. Related to the election, I just moved about 25% of our portfolio to cash. The uncertainty of it all which has been building. I can/will get back to fully invested by the end of the week. This article that I saw today spurred me to action http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-donald-trump-would-be-good-for-stock-market-investors-182014339.html

    I guess I’m figuring there’s a much better chance of the equity markets declining significantly or at best staying flat over the next few days vs jumping higher like they did today.

  81. DH took the prize. He got ready to go vote at 3 pm Saturday when early voting at the library closed at 1 pm. Hopefully he will get in line before the polls close tomorrow.

  82. “The requirements for getting a state id are so minimal that I am hard pressed to see how someone can’t get it done.”

    When our DMVs started implementing the Fed requirements, a lot of people had problems getting their IDs.

    I haven’t had to go through the new process yet, but will next year when my DL expires.

  83. Fred, we already have a fair amount in cash for which we’re waiting for an opportunity to move into mutual funds.

    I’m still kicking myself a bit for not moving anything right after Brexit.

  84. “I won’t be able to convince DH to vote for Hilary , but he keeps saying he is surprised someone of my ethical standards (a CPA) could vote for her. he is voting 3rd party. he can’t get over the emails and lying to the FBI. I can’t even talk about this election with him any more…

    but any good responses for him?”

    You’re right, she has a history of lying?

  85. “They have early voting here in MA so you can go on weekends and after hours starting October 24th.”

    We have permanent absentee ballots here. We’ve had ours a couple weeks or so, filled them out this past weekend, and I’ll drop them off at our polling location on the way to work tomorrow.

  86. “My grandmother definitely went to doctors and hospitals without an id. She never worked. She did have Medicare. She bought things. She had a checking account and used cash. And a credit card. All without an id.”

    She never drove legally? Never traveled internationally?

    I think my dad’s continually had a driver’s license since the 30s.

  87. Finn – never/never. She was very poor and had a lot of kids. She would go on driving trips with her kids once her kids were grown.

    My other grandmother worked at a professional job and traveled and drove and did lots of things. Very different from the other Grammy.

  88. Related to the election, I just moved about 25% of our portfolio to cash.

    You can’t time the market.

  89. Rhett, you’re right, of course. And there are plenty of graphs & charts out there showing the impact on one’s portfolio of missing the best 10/25/50/100 days of the stock market in the last X number of years. So staying put would be the right move.

    And since you’re right, the indicies will probably continue on today’s path for the next couple and I’d miss out on some nice gains. OTOH, if the S&P gives up today’s gains tomorrow, I’ll feel pretty good about myself.

  90. I’m surprised that 2/3 of Americans have traveled internationally and I assume that counts all the immigrants, legal and otherwise, who started someplace else. Seriously. We’re 90mins from the Canadian border and I know people my age who have lived here all their lives and have never been to Canada. Even in the days when you essentially needed nothing to cross the borders.

    And most of the populace is much farther from a border than that 90mins

  91. Rhett, it’s probably more than 1/3.

    That number does seem high but it’s the first one that came up. Let me double check…

  92. “You can’t time the market.”

    You can if you have the cash and the cajones.

    E.g., my example about Brexit; a few co-workers at the time dived in after Black Monday and did quite well.

    In hindsight, the market drops in both cases appear to have been overreactions. I anticipate a similar overreaction if Trump wins.

    Of course, timing the market doesn’t necessarily imply timing it well.

  93. Rhett, I wonder how many of those passports are issued for travel to and from Canada and Mexico? Which is foreign but not “overseas” and does not necessarily require a plane trip.

    My grandparents were both foreign-born but neither ever left the country once they arrived in the 1910’s. Probably not the case for most foreign-born residents these days.

  94. Which is foreign but not “overseas”

    In the Oakland, CA airport circa 1970s I saw a sign saying something to the effect: “Planes for overseas destinations, including Canada and Mexico this way ==>” Seriously.

  95. “I assume most people only get a passport because they have a trip planned?”

    While that’s the case for most people I know, I’m going to guess that there are some people who have passports primarily as a form of ID, like Louise’s relatives.

    Do all states have a state-issued ID alternative to a driver’s license?

  96. “You may be entitled to a EU passport.”

    If only we could get those pesky Original Long Form Birth Certificates….My brother was quite keen to get an Irish passport but no luck with the required documents.

    However, I do have my grandmother’s original temperance certificate, signed in the Old Country when she was a teenager. That was evidently worth hanging on to.

  97. There are probably a lot of older people who have traveled internationally but don’t have current passports, or they went to Canada or Mexico back when you didn’t need a passport. So the current percentage of people who hold passports probably significantly understates the actual number who have traveled internationally.

  98. Haven’t seen so many women wearing pantsuits since the ’80s, or whenever they were popular business attire.

    I agree with DD. I know older people who let their passports expire.

  99. I am really surprised that some have not been required to show ID at doctor’s visits or the ER. Here, it is routine to ask for ID at the initial visit and make a copy for the patient file. I’m not necessarily asked to show ID after the first visit, but definitely any time I go to a new provider.

  100. A couple of comments.

    I looked this up. The FBI director has a ten year term, so he won’t be handing in a ritual resignation letter. He can be fired by the President, but it has only been done once, for personal financial chicanery. That director dug in his heels and refused to resign. So the hope is that Comey can get control of his agency. Public backlash and appearances mean that Clinton cannot fire him. If she is the President, and the rank and file agree with the WSJ and think he is a sellout to Clinton only interested in his personal position, I think that will be a tall order. If Trump is President, he will have no problem defying custom saying, You’re fired, if he is not satisfied with the choice of investigative targets and the vigor/outcomes of the investigations.

    As for putting your hands on proof of date of birth, place of birth, and legal status, the new driver’s license/state ID requirements mean that some citizens, especially the rural elderly and naturalized citizens, may not have an easy time assembling the required documents. My mother was born in Kansas, at home, and her birth certificate had a different first name and date of birth from the one that she had used her whole life. It took repeated requests to even find the certificate. She had to get affidavits to get her passport and as she aged, she was assumed to be gaga and had insurance/health care issues because she always gave her lifelong but incorrect birth date that was not the one in the Medicare system. Her eldest brother was born in the Ottoman Empire, naturalized along with his father and mother at the age of 6, and that was even more trouble. I have read the census records for my family online, and the names of all members of the household vary from decade to decade, as well as the description of place of birth. If you have managed to vote in the past and otherwise get by without having to get legal help to assemble documents and/or have to make several trips over long distances to turn in your documents, you may not have the energy to fight a bureaucracy that intentionally or not, has made it difficult for you to vote in the future.

    If the authorities wished to institute a formal national identity card, rather than the patchwork of de facto ID cards that we use now, I don’t think there would be a lot of popular opposition except from the fringes on both sides. The days of being able to disappear from one life and resurface 2000 miles away with a clean slate are long gone. A major reason we don’t have mandatory identity cards is that economic interests do not want low skill undocumented immigration to be stopped because it depresses wages for all. So they rely on the left to oppose national ID cards as racist and inhumane, and the right to oppose it as a govt conspiracy, new world order, etc. The playing field is not level for those who try to adhere to the laws as written, both workers and employers. We totebaggers are complicit even if we buy our services through independent businesses, not directly from workers.

  101. “The days of being able to disappear from one life and resurface 2000 miles away with a clean slate are long gone.”

    The ease with which Richard Kimble did that in The Fugitive TV series from the early 1960’s was amazing. Also the extent to which people smoked in homes, offices, and even hospital rooms. It makes Mad Men look restrained.

    One reason that my siblings and I couldn’t easily get Irish passports was the lack of documentation for my grandparents, one of whom was orphaned as a toddler. When family members made the requisite trips to the Old Sod, they were also confronted with records lost in church fires. However, as those casually documented generations pass away, it seems less likely to me that there will be significant segments of the population living off the grid. And those people, who are by definition rather disengaged from society, are probably not interested in making the effort to vote in the first place.

  102. Timely. My driver’s license expires next month. I received notice in the mail yesterday that in order to renew it, I will need to appear at the DMV in person, with the following:

    1) Certified birth certificate or passport, or certificate of naturalization, AND
    2) Social security card, W-2 Form, or paystub with last 4 numbers, AND
    3) Bank statement, utility bill, or mortgage/lease statement.

    If your last name has changed since your last license, you have to bring a copy of the court order, marriage certificate, divorce decree, etc.

    The new license will be good for 8 years (not the previous 10), and this will cost me $32.

    All documents required in order to renew a currently valid driver’s license – it would be one thing if this were to obtain an initial license, but these are new hurdles put in place just for a renewal. I don’t know what the requirements are for just a state-ID, but I imagine they are the same.

    If you don’t believe these requirements, in Georgia, are intended to prevent the poor/disadvantaged/minorities from obtaining/renewing a valid ID, which in turn in required in order to vote, you are being willfully ignorant.

  103. I still have to make a trip to get state IDs for the second set of seniors. That is the last of the paperwork to be done. The first was immigration paperwork for the seniors (tons of paperwork and a lawyer for assistance), after that came through, Social Security cards, bank accounts, health insurance, finding a doctor, an accountant who is familiar with foreign taxes (was hard to find one) applying for a credit card. All done. Luckily no drivers licence.

  104. 1) Certified birth certificate or passport, or certificate of naturalization, AND
    2) Social security card, W-2 Form, or paystub with last 4 numbers, AND
    3) Bank statement, utility bill, or mortgage/lease statement.

    Jeez, I can’t find my SS card, and I’ve been retired for 7 years so any W-2 or paystub would be out of date. And the SS website scolds you that you only get two replacement cards over your entire lifetime and you don’t need the physical card anyway, you just need your number.

    For decades I had my SS card from childhood with my little elementary-school signature. I finally had to replace it after I lost it, and I can’t find either card now. So I guess I’m only entitled to one more card, and I’d better not fucking lose it, because if I do I’m cooked.

  105. I always have to show my drivers license when going to the doctor. Even if I’m an established patient.

  106. I wonder if I can even find a paystub…I better go root through the basement filing cabinet.

  107. RMS – our SS cards and naturalization certificates are in a bank locker, more securely stored than any other item we possess.

  108. I assumed that the more stringent requirements for obtaining or renewing licenses were part of federal homeland security legislation?

  109. smart Louise, SS cards are something people take for granted when born here (speaking for all)

  110. @ Scarlett – I don’t know. And there may be backups for those who don’t have this documentation.

  111. Lark,

    That is insane. I have no idea where my SS card is, nor does DH. Neither of us has a W2. DD has a W2, so I guess she could get an ID.

    SS does have my birthdate wrong. I was just going to let it go, because it will be a major hassle to get SS to fix it. However, I can see that it being a big issue when I am too addled to remember what my birtthday is supposed to be rather then when it actually is.

  112. Nevermind, I was hallucinating — it’s TEN replacement cards over the course of a lifetime. So maybe I’ll send away for #3 without panicking.

  113. ERs always request identification, but cannot require it. Imagine you’re in a car accident and your wallet or purse is separated from you. Do you think the ER Will turn you away at the door? Do you think they can institute some kind of acuity system for identification? The facilities I have worked out have required ID, with an asterisk. If you can’t show ID, they reserve the right to photograph you if they prescribe you narcotics. In the facilities I work at between 98% and 5% of my patients have ID. Alaska natives often do not have a picture ID.

  114. Imagine you’re in a car accident and your wallet or purse is separated from you. Do you think the ER Will turn you away at the door?

    Not to mention in many cases not only are your without ID you’re also unconscious or incoherent.

  115. ” So the current percentage of people who hold passports probably significantly understates the actual number who have traveled internationally.”

    Agreed. I let my passport expire for a few years when DS was young & had no international travel planned. Got a new one before an international trip. Planning a trip with some friends to celebrate a milestone birthday & 2 of our 6 had to renew an expired passport because they hadn’t traveled internationally in awhile. Would imagine that is common.

    @Lark – I totally agree with you. That’s ridiculous for a renewal. I renewed my DL this summer. Only ID needed was my expiring ID. Walked in & out of the agency in 15 minutes. You only need additional identification for a lost DL/ID, and even then I believe the requirements are less stringent. I mean – they have my photo from 4 years ago on file in the computer!

    As to the lines for early voting here. Two days before the election, I’m not surprised that there was a line, but early voting has been available for almost a month in Chicago. I voted weeks ago and there were more poll workers than voters. It took 10 minutes start to finish, and that’s just because I voted for every single item & double checked my ballot. The section on judicial retention is long.

  116. I can’t recall ever showing my driver’s license for medical care. The google search shows that the red flags rule, passed in Jan 2008 under President Bush, has been invoked by medical professionals as the reason they needed an ID even if you paid cash.

    I think that no doctor ever has to accept you as a patient if you don’t do what his practice requires. Only Emergency medical treatment is mandated by Federal Law, and that only at hospitals or equivalents – not standalone urgent care centers.

    From Wikipedia

    The Red Flags Rule was created by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), along with other government agencies such as the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA), to help prevent identity theft. The rule was passed in January 2008, and was to be in place by November 1, 2008. But due to push-backs by opposition, the FTC delayed enforcement until December 31, 2010.[1]

    In December 2010, the Red Flags Rule was clarified by the Red Flag Program Clarification Act of 2010 [2] to exclude most doctors, lawyers, and other professionals who do not receive full payment at the time when their service is furnished.

  117. Voted at 730; short line. I knew >50% of the precinct workers because they all live in our neighborhood.

    I actually voted for myself as a write-in for a state assembly seat. The R candidate made some comment about Obama telling blacks to kill whites, really, and I don’t know the other candidate. I figure I’m at least as well qualified as one of them.

  118. Voted this morning and brought my kids with me. Like tcmama I get a bit emotional over it. It is amazing freedom we have and I want my kids to appreciate that citizens can have a say in government. They were happy with the stickers. I was happy to cast my vote, and hopefully my city council picks win.

    I don’t recall ever showing ID at doctor visits. Maybe at the first initial visit, but not since, and I’m at a specialists office at least once a month. They have all taken my picture on the first visit and attached it to my electronic medical record, or my kid’s medical record, so I’m assuming that is how they determine they are talking to the right person.

  119. Voted this morning. Small line. The usual smooth process.
    +1

    The only time I’ve been asked to show ID at a medical center was when I was registering with the hospital for my twins’ birth and each year when I’m getting my mammogram. (They must be very concerned about screwing up the results in those situations.) Otherwise, never. Never at an ER – insurance card only, sometimes post treatment. Never for my regular doctor.

    BTW – On another thread there was talk of what a waste of time it is to go to the doctor when sick. Last year I had a cold that I couldn’t shake and was feverish off and on. Not very different from many, many other colds I’ve had, but it just wouldn’t go away. Finally I went to my doctor – pneumonia. Immediately put me on antibiotics. Definitely worth the visit!

  120. Lemon – One of my boys came with me. I completely agree with you. Feeling very patriotic today. We talked about how Gore accepted the S.Ct. decision and peaceably accepted the outcome.

  121. I get a little emotional at the inauguration. Within the space of seconds, one man (so far) goes from being the leader of the free world to a private citizen, another citizen becomes the president of all us. It is done peaceably, with much fanfare. Just thinking about it gives me goosebumps.

  122. Tangent: Kerri, my point about going to the doctor wasn’t primarily a time question, it was whether it was worth the $500 to find out I had chronic bronchitis rather than pneumonia at a time when our budget was tight and I was making choices about the very-first-world problem about more swimming lessons for my kids vs. paying for medical test results.

    I think for other people, the question was about time, but when I accidentally started the discussion, it was very much about money, priorities for it, and when people should choose to pay for doctor visits over other things that they need/want. (End tangent, but the responses over the day made me want to clarify)

  123. WCE – not a tough call, IMO. Health first. And good grief, mastitis for weeks?! Go to a doctor! You need to take better care of yourself! (Over-protective motherly rant over.)

  124. Rhett,

    While I think that one should have to verify one’s identity to vote. I should think that it should also be reasonably feasible to get an ID.

    I would hope that I have indicated over the years my distrust of the government/public service agencies and my lack of confidence in their ability to perform their duties with a reasonable level of competence.

    The requirements for a Georgia ID support my contention about government incompetence. Not only would those requirements make it difficult to vote, they also make it difficult to engage in the above ground economy.

  125. Late to the ID discussion, but…

    To legally work in the US, you can show a birth certificate with a school ID card (Orofino HS, home of the Maniacs, will suffice) – no government issued ID required. You can show a SS card + your voter ID. Tribal documents from a federally recognized tribe are sufficient – no birth certificate, SS card or driver’s license required.

    Many Native Americans living on tribal land do not have government issued ID. Voter ID laws disenfranchise them. How many is it okay to disenfranchise? 10,000? 100,000? 1 million? How much voter fraud would this eliminate?

    Additionally, New York does not accept a US passport as adequate ID to have a driver’s license issued or exchanged. In order to prove your ID for a Ny license, you need 6 “points” of ID – passport is 4, out of state DL is 2, pistol permit is 2, welfare card is 2 or 3, college ID WITH transcript is 2, high school ID is 1, utility bill is 1.

    If I could have legally held on to my out of state DL the years I lived in NY, I would have – it was such a hassle (and they took my old DL, and issued a new one with the wrong birth date by 2 days – and then I didn’t have 6 points of ID anymore to prove my ID for them to reissue!). DH had to get a letter mailed directly from an OOS DMV to the NY DMV that showed his issue date for his DL – even though it was unexpired, he could not exchange it without an official document. It was truly crazy! I would imagine there are lots of people who are in NY for a few years who do not go through all that work to get a local ID – especially if they don’t drive.

  126. Echoing Kerri here. Pneumonia can have lifelong consequences and mastitis is serious. Treating both those conditions takes precedence over swim lessons.

    As an totally random aside, how difficult is it to get swim lessons for your community? Not just those of us who view it as a life skill akin to learning how to cross a street, but for the nontotebaggers who may have difficulty coming up with fees and time?

  127. Not only would those requirements make it difficult to vote, they also make it difficult to engage in the above ground economy.

    So you oppose the REAL ID Act that I linked to above? An act that was passed almost entirely with republican support and signed into law by George W. Bush?

  128. Many Native Americans living on tribal land do not have government issued ID.

    Why is it so hard to get an ID? Given the New York example, how does a high school kid get a driver’s license? Or a state id card if they don’t get a license?

    Having an ID is almost essential to participate in the above ground economy, e.g. to have a bank account, to rent a car, to rent an apartment. Why is it so hard to come by?

  129. So you oppose the REAL ID Act that I linked to above? An act that was passed almost entirely with republican support and signed into law by George W. Bush?

    Dude, other I’m closer to Republican than Democrat, I’m really a libertarian.

  130. “As an totally random aside, how difficult is it to get swim lessons for your community? ”

    Difficult. The Y has good programs but they’re booked quickly. Otherwise it is expensive. Facilities are limited.

  131. In the area I travel to work in, there are often no traffic cops, and mostly no roads. The people often are substinance hunter and gathers. Tribal documents (not photo IDs) can be used for health care, banking, travel. You don’t need a driver’s license if you live without roads. Many villages have no law enforcement. We are talking about a group of people the size of a few high schools in Texas (20-50,000) – but they are Americans who should vote.

  132. Also, they would have to fly to another city to get a photo ID. Many of the elders leave their communities once a decade.

  133. Why is it so hard to come by?

    The REAL ID Act for starters.

    As a libertarian, I’m surprised that you support the governments ongoing effort to require citizens to constantly present their papers in order to interact with the world.

  134. As a libertarian, I’m surprised that you support the governments ongoing effort to require citizens to constantly present their papers in order to interact with the world.

    I’m taking the world as it is, not as it should be.

  135. Can we all agree that 9/11 allowed a lot of authoritarian impulses on both sides of the aisle to come to fruition?

  136. a lot of authoritarian impulses

    With you, I assume, supporting the ID and tracking portion of those impulses?

  137. With you, I assume, supporting the ID and tracking portion of those impulses?

    No.

    The government already knows way too much about everyone. And too many people have been lulled into thinking it is ok.

  138. The government already knows way too much about everyone. And too many people have been lulled into thinking it is ok.

    Then you’ve changed your mind with reguard to government issued photo ID requirements?

  139. The government already knows way too much about everyone…

    The government has my first grade report card.
    My parents kept all my records in good order and my name was spelled correctly on all my documents, that was a blessing while immigrating.
    Many of my friends/family had issues where their name was spelled incorrectly on things like their birth certificate, their high school certificate, passport – all different spellings . They had to have all their documents corrected in the home country which was a nightmare.

  140. 3) Bank statement, utility bill, or mortgage/lease statement.

    You’d almost think republicans were intentionally trying to disenfranchise people. It can’t be about security as it would take me 5 minutes to load my electronic bills into photoshop and make them say whatever I wanted them to say.

  141. Then you’ve changed your mind with reguard to government issued photo ID requirements?

    No, you do need to be able to prove your identity to function in society. Otherwise, how do you participate in the banking system, buy a house, drive a car, buy a car, get a job, pay taxes, and you should need one to vote.

    So, the government should be able to provide a form of identification without going to the extremes that Georgia, New York, and perhaps other areas think are ok. Even the most hardcore libertarians, (not that I’m comfortable there either) agree that the government provides some essential services, police protection, military protection. Even Milton Friedman argued that there was a case for public provision of education services.

  142. Cordellia,

    Would you agree then that until the repeal of the REAL ID Act and it’s onerous burdens you no longer support voter ID requirements?

  143. Otherwise, how do you participate in the banking system,L

    ID requirements to interact with the banking system are something that the government mandated in the Bank Secrecy Act.

  144. I lean very libertarian yet I’ve always like the idea of a national id. Not sure if I can reconcile those two notions.

    The NY requirements are burdensome and imo not easily understood. Even the math can be baffling because they require that all your documents equal 6 points but does that mean after your basic SS card is counted? (I may be characterizing that inaccurately but you get the picture.) And then they require “paper” original documents, but some of these things are only in electronic form. I’m mainly unhappy about all this because I’ve been so poorly organized about my kids’ documents, having misplaced their SS cards for a number of years. Plus with one child born in a third world country and some original birth documents filed away so well I forgot where they were …

    I never had to show my SS card in my life, and here in NY they require the card for state ids. I also recall all the docs I had to show to enroll my D in the local soccer league. Even though they couldn’t read the birth certificate they seemed not to want to offend. It worked out.

  145. Given how long people have survived with mastitis or pneumonia before antibiotics existed, I still don’t know when treatment is really “needed” vs. when it’s “preferable”. The problem isn’t just mastitis, it’s mastitis around an existing lump that few practitioners feel comfortable making a call about, so it was two separate visits, one of which took ~3 weeks to get.

    Swimming lessons aren’t that hard to get in my community. You pay ~$60 for ~9-10 half-hour group lessons (M/W or T/Th) and I have to drive ~20 min to the pool and then back home. The instructors vary in quality and motivation. The hassle to get people changed (then), managing the family schedule so we can make most of the lessons, and not-fighting-in-the-men’s-locker-room (now) are all logistical challenges. This reminds me that I should probably subject us to swimming lesson misery again this winter.

  146. Swimming lessons are easy and cheap in Denver. The Recreation Department seems to have really prioritized aquatics. Almost all the rec centers — even the old, little, crummy ones — have pools, and lesson are available year-round. They have evening classes and if you can’t afford the (pretty reasonable) price, you can get a “scholarship”. I think it’s great, since I’m fundamentally amphibious. It’s one of the things that keeps me in Denver.

  147. Rhett, but it takes a long time to die of an infectious disease, and usually by the time I can get an appointment, in a day or two, that bout of mastitis was already over or almost over, so it’s kind of “what’s the point.”

  148. On documents – we had an opportunity once in the immigration process to have our names be as we wanted them going forward. I can’t begin to tell you how some of thought this was our own Ellis Island moment and decided to drop pesky middle names, tweak the spelling of our last names etc. When parents found out they weren’t very happy that their beloved Bubbas had left that name behind.

  149. Sure, if it were easy for everyone to get a state ID, I don’t think most people would care about requiring them for voting purposes. But, it isn’t in all states, it disproportionally affects the poor, the old, the young and the sick and it doesn’t really do much to reduce voter fraud. So, even if we can conclude 21 million people aren’t unable to vote because of the laws, what level is acceptable to people? I think we should err on the side of letting people vote since fraud doesn’t really ever materially affect our voting results. I have yet to hear a compelling reason for having the laws that isn’t based in some alternative reality (voter fraud) or just being a jerk.

  150. 100 countries have national ID programs and the remaining 95/96 (depending on how you count Taiwan) have no national ID program but may offer requested ID’s like licenses, passports etc. A government needs a way to identify its citizens. But I agree with Meme that both sides of the aisle want sheeple and pit us against each other so they drive the country policies as they see fit. In regards to voting, they either gerrymander district lines to control how a group votes or make it so difficult to obtain what is needed to participate to keep voting numbers down. Regardless, I don’t think either side wants everyone to vote or every vote to count. They want the votes that keep them in power.

    I’m not sure what the solution is but it is most likely a national ID program that has clear polices and guidelines. I’m not advocating that we have to walk around with those ID’s and need to produce on demand, just that it is an ID issued by the federal government and not the state, though they could continue to produce an ID that most would use in their daily lives.

    Then with areas like Ada mentioned, we can accomplish two goals with one objective. We talk about here no jobs for teenagers/young adults. We could hire them as part of the National ID initiative and have them go to the Reservation, with the appropriate equipment, be able to track down documents needed, have onsite appropriate authority who could certify the people who may be missing some piece of documentation and get everyone and ID and register the adults to vote. This model could be used across the nation. But again, I’m not sure either side really wants this and what they really want is bleating sheeple who will just spout off soundbites.

  151. Would you agree then that until the repeal of the REAL ID Act and it’s onerous burdens you no longer support voter ID requirements?

    I think both would need to take place at the same time. I can’t fathom the argument for keeping the New York/Georgia requirements, other than the always popular, we’ve always done it that way.

    I am surprised that there isn’t a move from some of the more left wing groups, like Southern Poverty Law Center to push for reasonable ways to get ID. This would seem to be an easy win win. It seems that the difficulty of getting an ID would play a not insignificant part in keeping low income people from having a more stable or higher income.

  152. I can’t fathom the argument for keeping the New York/Georgia requirements, other than the always popular, we’ve always done it that way.

    It was mandated as part of the REAL ID Act in 2005 and it didn’t go into effect until 2008 and some states (like MA) have dragged their feet so ours doesn’t start until 2017!

  153. The Georgia requirements are new. I did not have to produce anything other than my North Carolina driver’s license and a bill showing our current Georgia address when we moved here, and that license was good for 10 years (as opposed to 8).

  154. I don’t think it has started in California. Of course, we give driver’s licenses to illegal aliens, so maybe California just isn’t participating.

  155. Of course, we give driver’s licenses to illegal aliens, so maybe California just isn’t participating.

    They’ve been grated a waver until 2020.

  156. “Given the New York example, how does a high school kid get a driver’s license?”

    Lots of NY high school kids don’t!! My 11th grader does not have one, nor do any of his friends. My kid does has a passport though.

  157. As crazy as the NY requriements are, I have read that we are not in compliance with Real ID, and we may have to start showing passports to fly in the near future.

  158. Of course, we give driver’s licenses to illegal aliens, so maybe California just isn’t participating.

    They’ve been grated a waver until 2020.

    Who wants to bet the waivers continue indefinitely?

  159. Who wants to bet the waivers continue indefinitely?

    I assume you support it being continued indefinitely?

  160. I assume you support it being continued indefinitely?

    I’m generally happy with badly written legislation being put off indefinitely. After the discussion today, I think there is a need for some sort of national ID that can be acquired in a reasonable fashion. Which is not REAL ID or the Georgia/New York model.

  161. “Given how long people have survived with mastitis or pneumonia before antibiotics existed”

    It seems like a lot of people died of pneumonia when I was a kid, and whenever someone got it, surviving it was always in question.

  162. “she always gave her lifelong but incorrect birth date that was not the one in the Medicare system”

    That sort of thing was pretty common in my parents’ generation. People were often born at home, and their births not officially recorded until later, and often (typically?) the date on the birth certificate was the date the birth was recorded, not the date of the actual birth.

    My dad’s birth certificate date is a month after the date the family considers his birthday.

  163. “Imagine you’re in a car accident and your wallet or purse is separated from you. Do you think the ER Will turn you away at the door?
    Not to mention in many cases not only are your without ID you’re also unconscious or incoherent.”

    On a tangent from this, I’ve read recommendations that to include an ICE (In Case of Emergency) number in our cell phone directories for situations such as being unconscious or incoherent. In my case, I have DW’s phone numbers.

    Ada, in your experience, does this ever matter?

  164. “I renewed my DL this summer. Only ID needed was my expiring ID. Walked in & out of the agency in 15 minutes. You only need additional identification for a lost DL/ID, and even then I believe the requirements are less stringent. I mean – they have my photo from 4 years ago on file in the computer!”

    I’m guessing that is was easy because you last renewed 4 years ago.

    Here, the amount of documentation required varies depending on how long ago the license was last renewed. If it was after the more stringent standards were implemented, it’s a lot less than if not.

  165. “Dude, other I’m closer to Republican than Democrat, I’m really a libertarian.”

    Did you vote for Johnson?

    “I lean very libertarian yet I’ve always like the idea of a national id. Not sure if I can reconcile those two notions.”

    IMO, libertarians view a primary responsibility of government as protecting the freedoms of individuals from encroachment by others. A strong ID program can make identity theft and other criminal activity, which typically infringe on individuals’ freedoms, more difficult and is thus in that manner consistent with libertarianism.

  166. Johnson’s an idiot, though. It’s entirely possible to have a Libertarian candidate who is bright and reasonable, but Johnson ain’t it. Even Weld endorsed Hillary.

  167. “Johnson’s an idiot”

    However, he is not Trump and he is not Hillary.

    I’m curious whether he was a good governor.

  168. A strong ID program can make identity theft and other criminal activity, which typically infringe on individuals’ freedoms, more difficult and is thus in that manner consistent with libertarianism.

    Presumably, libertarians would support a private sector ID system. BofA could take your picture, fingerprints, retinal scan etc. to establish your ID. Perhaps validated by Experian or Trans Union? You’ll notice that when you sign up for some things online they validate your ID by asking “What of these addresses have you lived” etc. That is your ID being validated by the private sector.

    http://www.experian.com/decision-analytics/identity-and-fraud/identity-verification-screening.html

  169. they validate your ID by asking “What of these addresses have you lived” etc

    I always get something like

    1234 Mill Drive
    567 Larch Crescent
    9078 Chestnut Lane
    55-345 Hui Akepa Street

    and only one even sounds like a Hawaii street address. So if someone from Hawaii were impersonating me they wouldn’t find it hard to guess. I would assume that other places have similar experiences with locally distinctive street names.

  170. So, given that approximately half the electorate will be horrified by the president elect, what do you think he/she can do to placate that portion of the population?

  171. they validate your ID by asking “What of these addresses have you lived” etc

    I have had them pull out address from over 25 years ago. I generally am thinking, hmmm, I don’t recall any of those.

  172. given that approximately half the electorate will be horrified by the president elect

    I don’t know that’s true. My husband, a life long and fairly staunch Republican, will not be voting for Hillary. But he’s not voting for Trump. He’s probably going to write in Paul Ryan. He will not be horrified by Hillary winning, he thinks she would probably make a good president. But he can’t vote for her himself. I think there are higher numbers of Republicans like him than the polls reflect.

  173. what do you think he/she can do to placate that portion of the population?

    Try and bring back congressional earmarks? The system worked better when they were able to use some sugar to keep politicians in line and interested in working together. I also get the impression that the savings realized by the ending of earmarks hasn’t been all that amazing.

  174. “As an totally random aside, how difficult is it to get swim lessons for your community?”

    The park district offers lessons for ~$25/session (once a week for 12 weeks), and will waive the fee if needed. Lots of pools all over the city – most areas would have one within walking/bus distance. Quality varies depending on the park and the specific staff assigned for each session. They do a decent job of serving communities across the city.

    Mid-range lessons seem to be difficult to find. Lots of Totebaggy/UMC “swim schools” that charge an arm & a leg and are overkill IMHO. We have stuck with the Park District as the pool is very convenient & we’ve had decent instructors. The pools are somewhat bare bones, but well-maintained. It’s fine. DS learned how to swim through these lessons – might have taken longer than a fancy swim school, but the cost to get to the point that he learned to swim the length of the pool was MUCH less.

  175. I’m glad to have the option of swimming lessons. In the ~200k population Richland/Pasco/Kennewick area, there are no indoor public swimming pools so lots of kids don’t learn to swim.

  176. We can get reasonably priced swim lessons from various Y’s in the area. My kids did the YWCA lessons. Our town pool also offers them in summer. There are also swim lessons through various fancy sports clubs, but they cost more

  177. In our area, making sure kids learn to swim is..i don’t …a community value, community goal, something that must be done…So, lessons are cheap, offered during the day or at night, and the expectation is that kids can get lifeguard training essentially for free as long as they work as swim instructors. It is definitely low rent, but no one should drown because their parents couldn’t afford swim lessons.

  178. “In the ~200k population Richland/Pasco/Kennewick area, there are no indoor public swimming pools so lots of kids don’t learn to swim.”

    Really??? what happened? That is where I learned to swim, at the Richland Y

  179. Or it’s possible that my source doesn’t consider that “public”. I just hear about “no pool” when I’m there- I could be wrong.

  180. “1234 Mill Drive”

    There’s a Mill Street on Maui, which of course runs right next to where the mill used to be.

  181. Rhett, that appears to be an outdoor pool. There are quite a few public/neighborhood outdoor pools, so kids can learn in summer.

  182. There are also Mill Streets in Lahaina and Waianae. In a way I’m surprised there aren’t more, or that there isn’t a Mill Drive that I could find, given how many mills there were here.

  183. “The new Richland Y has no pool.”

    Oh sad. ANd weird. I thought indoor pools were like a defining feature of Y’s.

    I remember that place so well. To get there, we would walk through a large plot of vacant land, with some low scrub trees, bushes, and sagebrush. Sometimes people rode horses there. It was always summer and very hot so the pool, which was kind of dark and dank, was a relief. I progressed through most of the levels there, starting with Minnow I think. We also went in the afternoon for free swim, which was totally packed.

  184. “Even Weld endorsed Hillary.”

    Did he really?

    I saw headlines about that, but in what he actually said, he never mentioned Hillary.

  185. “given that approximately half the electorate will be horrified by the president elect”

    “I don’t know that’s true. My husband, a life long and fairly staunch Republican, will not be voting for Hillary. But he’s not voting for Trump. He’s probably going to write in Paul Ryan. He will not be horrified by Hillary winning”

    OTOH, I think there are a lot of people who will be horrified by either Hillary or Trump, many of whom are still holding their noses and voting for one of them anyway.

  186. In NY, If you’re <21, have the soc sec card and birth cert, your parent can attest for you on a DMV form by signing and presenting their NY drivers license/non-driver ID, so you can get your own. I don't think that's too onerous. There does need to be some minimum standard other than "because I told you so."

    I realize there can be extenuating circumstances, but I think the above standards can be met.

  187. While that’s awesome for people who are from New York, that doesn’t address people who move there as young adults.

    I would think a valid, out of state license should be adequate as well. Or a passport.

    Or a passport+out of state license – which is not adequate for many states (though not all).

  188. DS is going around the neighborhood like a campaign pollster instant on ferreting out who voted for whom. In the bargain getting the parents into a tizzy about how their nice neighbor could vote for “her” or “him”.

  189. Ada – for your young adult, his/her other state license (2 pts) + passport (4pts) + soc sec card allows them to exchange their old license for a new one.

  190. We haven’t discussed the election much, and Twin 1 decided he is pro-Johnson and Twin 2 decided he is pro-Clinton. Last night’s conversation:
    Twin 1: Why do you like Clinton?
    Twin 2: Because I think she’ll be president. Why don’t you like her?
    Twin 1: Because she wants to take away our guns. (obviously thinks of the elk Daddy shot on Saturday). She doesn’t want us to have fresh meat.
    Twin 2: I think she wants to take away our guns for safety. She doesn’t want a person to get shot instead of an elk.

  191. “This reminds me that I should probably subject us to swimming lesson misery again this winter.”

    WCE, my experience has been that any child who isn’t clamoring to play in the water should not be subjected to swimming lessons during the winter. It’s a great way to turn them off from water sports for years. The whole process of getting them out of their cozy warm clothes into a swimsuit and coaxed into water that will never be warm enough and a locker room that is probably on the chilly side too is indeed misery. We had our best luck with spring lessons to get them comfortable in the water so that they could qualify for the Intermediate classes at the outdoor neighborhood swim club. Those lessons were in the afternoons, when the unheated water was warmer, but for whatever reason the absolute beginner lessons were at 9 am on the shady side of the pool. Not a good arrangement for skinny reluctant little non-swimmers.

    When my kids were little BITD, I sat beside the phone on D-Day of the Fairfax County RecParks swim lesson signups and called at the first possible moment. By the end of the day, many classes were sold out.

    An appalling percentage of black and Hispanic kids don’t learn to swim during childhood, which means that they never learn.

  192. An appalling percentage of black and Hispanic kids don’t learn to swim during childhood, which means that they never learn.

    That is one reason that everyone.must.learn.to.swim in our town. We have a SAHM who has run parks and rec forever. She knows all the kids in town and is a force of nature getting them to swim lessons.

  193. My DH cannot fathom the attraction of swimming because of the forced swim lessons in cold water as a child. For sake of reference, we live in an area where 100 + degree days are the norm between May and September.

  194. The number I usually hear is that 70% of African Americans have no or low swimming ability. I was also surprised that 42% of white people have no or low swimming ability.

    But I guess it makes sense – they don’t teach it in school so you usually only know it your parents took the time and spent the money to take you to lessons.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-11172054

  195. My libertarian sensibilities would not be offended by subsidizing swimming lesson for all children.

  196. In the ’80s when I was in grad school (hi Rhett!) in Chappa Heel, it was still a requirement that the undergrads had to be able to swim X number of laps or they couldn’t graduate. There was a certain amount of fussing because the black kids were less likely to have learned to swim than the white kids. Of course lessons were offered, but ultimately I think they dropped the requirement. I don’t think any branch of the University of California required swimming proficiency. Too bad, I would have crushed it.

  197. I agree with Cordelia’s DH about the attraction of swimming. I understand the attraction of not drowning, so I’d like my kids to be able to swim the length of the pool.

    Scarlett, thanks for your comment-if we don’t do lessons this year, it will help me feel less guilty. In winter, the pool/locker room is reasonably warm and lessons fit around school hours. The challenge is that lesson + overhead is ~2 hr of the ~4.5 hr between bus and bedtime when there are also obligations to supper, homework, piano practice and Baby WCE and indoor soccer is preferable to swimming (and way less time consuming) as an activity. In summer, the swim lessons are outdoors with many/most in the morning while temps are ~60’s. I think there are some afternoon lessons (temps are high 70’s/low 80’s, which is fine to me) but I’d need to be on top of sign-ups and figure out transportation for either morning or afternoon lessons, which means having our summer extremely well-planned in terms of childcare.

  198. Swimming is considered to be a priority by the community here and in addition to the Park & Rec pools, the Y’s have nice pools with income based fees. Lots of families sign their kids up for swim lessons and use the indoor pools during the winter months.

    The indoor pools are heated and so is the building. My kids took swim lessons year round.

    The swim clubs cost quite a bit, for outdoor pool use only in the summer and one popular one had a three year wait list. Next year I will be signing up my kids at a less popular one with no wait list. So far we used the Y which cost much less.

  199. There was a swimming requirement at our high school BITD. Athletes were exempt, until the basketball star in our class drowned a week after graduation. There was also a swimming requirement at our current university until a few years ago. Caused much wailing and gnashing of teeth on CC threads. I did not know until reading one of those threads that some (many?) black women avoid swimming pools because chlorine damages black “natural” hair styles.

  200. David Brooks just called for a new centrist third party in his opinion piece in the NYT. He has given up on the GOP as a party where an educated Internationalist like himself can feel at home, and he considers the Democratic party to be captured by the Sanders wing (??). A lonely elite pundit without a place to call home.

  201. Scarlett – I had read your article and thought that was ridiculous till I enquired at the popular swim club and got the three year answer.
    I ruled out country clubs with pools because we won’t use the rest of the facilities enough to justify the membership fees.
    I will still use the Y for their summer camps. Now the camp sign ups are online which is awesome instead of going in person.

  202. “There was a swimming requirement at our high school BITD.”

    We had not so much a swimming requirement as a survival requirement. We had to survive something like 10 minutes in the deep end of the pool, whether by floating, treading water, swimming laps, or whatever.

    We also had swimming classes as part of PE in elementary school.

  203. We had a swimming requirement in college: you had to take some PE freshman year, and if you couldn’t swim you were switched to a swimming class.

  204. “As an totally random aside, how difficult is it to get swim lessons for your community? Not just those of us who view it as a life skill akin to learning how to cross a street, but for the nontotebaggers who may have difficulty coming up with fees and time?”
    I’m late to the party but need to give a shout out to my local YMCA, which gives a week of swimming lessons to every 4th grader in the school district for free. The kids go to the Y during school on school buses. Our schools are 50% minority, and black children have historically had a higher rate of drowning because they don’t learn to swim. So I appreciate our Y’s efforts in this regard.

  205. DD’s school had a mock election today. DD was really unhappy about this because she figured it would just end up with people mad at each other. Did your kids’ school do anything similar?

  206. So DH, who is pretty senior in the software group at a large hedge fund, just got home and announced that he is on call all night in case the markets go nuts

  207. There was a mock election in the elementary school, and it was clear that there was a favorite because many of the kids were clearly HRC supporters based on clothing and pins.

    There wasn’t an election in our MS, but I was impressed how much my daughter learned in two days about the electoral college. Her social studies class is studying the colonies now, but the teacher took a break for three days to focus on the election. This teacher did a great job of sharing a lot of information in 35 minutes.

    I’ve been clear about my choice, and that’s why I stayed away from this string for months. I realized today that there is one negative impact that I didn’t think about if HRC wins; road closures. I hope she spends very little time in Chappaqua because they’ve started to close highways when she travels. I live in the southern part of the county, but I got caught today in a road closure.

  208. Swim tests were alive and well when I was in college in the early 90s.

    DH came home and told me he voted for Hillary. Unexpectedly, I cried. What a world we live in.

  209. Louise, I was on the board at our local swim club and there was a period in which the membership chair liked to tell enquirers that there was a three year (or whatever) waiting list. What she didn’t tell them was that, because of people moving in and out so often or joining other (lesser) pools, sometimes three years was more like 9 months, especially after a dues hike increase, which caused some older members to calculate their cost-per-swim and resign in droves. So it might be the same in your community.

  210. David Brooks just called for a new centrist third party in his opinion piece in the NYT. He has given up on the GOP as a party where an educated Internationalist like himself can feel at home, and he considers the Democratic party to be captured by the Sanders wing (??). A lonely elite pundit without a place to call home.

    People have been asking for that for years.

  211. Life on the West Coast- get off the bus, have a snack, watch the polls in the states-you-don’t-know-very-well start to close.

  212. Scarlett – that’s good to know.

    WCE – DS had a hard time marking the states that are further away from the East coast on the map. I confess I can’t mark all the states on the map. Shame on me !

  213. Rubio won Florida. Trump is winning. Good news, Hillary-haters! Your dream is about to come true. The Orange Man will win the U.S.

  214. RMS, HRC will win, don’t worry. I will bet a very large sum of money on it, and I make my living off getting numbers right.

  215. RMS – I have started drinking. Lots of northern va votes that haven’t reported yet, so don’t worry about us yet.

  216. Nate Silver just predicted a Trump Electoral College win.

    NYT says Trump now has an 81% chance of winning the election.

    Dow futures are down 600 points.

  217. Dow futures down 600 points on Trump win. If he wins, 2008 will look like a rose garden compared to the Depression we will get.

  218. This is going to come down to Michigan. This is not good. I know a whole heck of a lot of people up there and let’s just say that as of last year they still didn’t believe that Obama was born in the US.

  219. Crud, I may owe RMS an autographed picture of Baby WCE eating bean dip in her high chair in front of the TV.

    In other news, Twin 1 learned that the president cannot take away your guns just because (s)he wants to, and that HRC does not want to take away his Nerf guns. So he’s OK with HRC.

  220. So Trump will be president, and there is no requirement that he place his business in a blind trust, and we have no idea if, or to what degree, his business interests have ties to Russia or China. Is there any requirement that he reveal conflicts of interest at this point, or was the election process supposed to vet that sort of thing? I never think it is a good idea for one party to control the House, Senate and the Presidency. It feels particularly bad at this point.

  221. Yes it is. Buckle up! This is going to be really, really rough. Hope you all got in gold a few days ago.

  222. “nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people”

    Mencken? Barnum?

  223. Milo,

    Dow futures down almost 1,000 points. So, what are the long term economic ramifications for totebaggers? It seems like the anti- totebag faction is winning,

  224. Crud, I may owe RMS an autographed picture of Baby WCE eating bean dip in her high chair in front of the TV.

    I look forward to it. I’ll be under my bed.

  225. Rhett – the cost of future earnings is about to go down, at least for a little while, hopefully longer.

  226. I’m going to go to bed now. The expected major decline in my portfolio is a first world problem. I am going to remember in the morning that my house is paid for, we have prepaid our next three trips, and I have enough cash lying around to get the exhaust pipe fixed and extend the life of my car.

  227. It will be ok, RMS. Don’t despair. At least you guys have legalized pot. We don’t even have that. Just a front row view to the shit show that is about to start.

  228. It’s not over yet. Although the shock and awe from the talking heads on NBC is stunning as they try to convince themselves that Hilary could still win

  229. Rocky, it may be. It is just really hard to believe. I have little regard for him, but I hope he can figure out a path for reconciliation.

  230. Cordelia, he’s famous for his vindictiveness and endless desire to punish his “enemies”.

  231. He can’t even control himself on Twitter. I seriously doubt that he can come up with a way to unite us. I will be happy if he doesn’t provoke a major war.

  232. David French at the National Review sums it up for me.

    “I pray earnestly and unambiguously that God may bless him, grant him wisdom, and open his ears to wise counsel. I pray earnestly and unambiguously that I end up being just as wrong about his character and capabilities as I was about his political prospects. I want him to be good, to be wise, and to be worthy of the Oval Office.”

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner

    It wasn’t a bad victory speech, all things considered. No one is rioting in the streets. The markets will recover. And legions of PhD students in political science will have dissertation topics.

  233. Now we can have the national conversation I have been waiting for for the last 20 years about limiting the power of the executive branch.

  234. I’ll be very interested to see if Trump’s plan works.

    I’m also curious to see what the plan turns out to be. The very same elites (on both the left and the right) are just as certain he won’t do what he says he’s going to do as they were that he had little chance of winning. I don’t have a lot of faith in their prognostications.

  235. Rocky – I’m going to say something and I mean it in no uncertain terms: if all liberals were like you and Meme, (and maybe Elizabeth Warren was the candidate) I would not have been so eager to see their candidate lose.

  236. Milo,

    How confident are you in your theory that he’s going to be happy just being president and outsource most of the policy work to Pence and Ryan? Or, having won, is he going to try to do what he said he was going to do?

  237. Speechless. House, senate, president. So if he decides to start nuclear war is there anything that can stop him in an all republican government?

  238. I sincerely hope that I have been very, very wrong about his competence and character. He’s our president-elect now so I wish him the very best. Hope he has a good team ready to jump in.

  239. I want to see a stop to the constant campaigning. I read yesterday that 2020 hopefuls are already lining up.

  240. “Or, having won, is he going to try to do what he said he was going to do?”

    Well, first we’re going to restore “lawr and order” on Day 1. You can’t have a strong economy without lawr and order. :)

    We’ll see. I optimistically see him as an independent pragmatist with a populist streak, fed up with political correctness, not beholden to ideology or special interests. That’s the good stuff, at least.

    But I think that, politics aside, anyone can be a little bit happy for a huge underdog upset. People who hate Citizens United should be thrilled that a candidate can win being grossly outspent in both the primaries and general. The Kochs are a bit less influential this morning.

    I tried to go to sleep at 4 am, but it was hopeless.

    And look, Lauren doesn’t have to worry about motorcade road closures!

  241. “I read yesterday that 2020 hopefuls are already lining up.”

    Michelle Obama was the only one I saw mentioned.

    I guess I’m one of the few people around me who are not afraid and depressed.

    //platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

  242. I was talking to a friend and I mentioned that at least the $1 trillion in infrastructure spending will be nice.

    Some analyst noted that they were struck by how un-ideological Trumps victory speech was. I think his entire campaign has been un-ideological. With that in mind, I hope that if Trump proposes something that Democrats also support ($1 trillion in infrastructure spending for example) they embrace it. Rather than be like the Republicans and just oppose everything as a matter of principle.

  243. Rhett, that may be the way to some degree of unity. I think both Republicans and Democrats may be ready to work together under Trump It appears that Obama is being open about this.

  244. Not to beat a dead horse, but are we ever getting a concession speech? Maybe something about more cracks in the glass ceiling?

    Didn’t think she’d need it, so writing it now?

  245. I think both Republicans and Democrats may be ready to work together under Trump

    Can I have some of what you’re smoking? It’s legal now in several more states.

  246. CofC,

    I think this will also accelerates the realignment of the parties that Milo has mentioned.

  247. “Hope he has a good team ready to jump in.”

    The very best people.

    LOL.

    I stayed up watching until PA was called. When Trump was winning with just the Pittsburgh area left to count I knew he would take it. Wow! I didn’t vote for Trump but I think it will be fine. My sister has been sending me emotional texts all morning with the subject line “There goes democracy”. What? That was democracy.

  248. Presumably. That’s what they said on FOX News. Fair and balanced.

    At some point I need to pack today for DW’s and my trip.

  249. Dow and S&P500 futures are down only 1.1%-1.2%. Not much in absolute terms and also compared with the 4+% they were down 9 hours ago.
    (they are not always reliable indicators of what the real trading market will do on any given day)

  250. I was texting with a number of old friends as the results came in. I have never seen such liberal, repeated use of the f-word among dignified, church-going women-of-a-certain-age. The two with gay kids seem the most alarmed. I hope the next few years go better than my very, very low current expectations

  251. I am surprisingly very emotional and raw today! Never has an election affected me so. I am feeling all doom and gloom, and sad for what this result really represents.

  252. Dell +1. I think I’m most upset for my girls. That they have witnessed a man say hurtful things and be a bully and the American people (really the electoral college) voted him into office. The Golden Rule does not apply to the highest office.

  253. RMS, no! Even though I agreed with Trump on some issues, I would rather have Hilary as our President any day.

  254. DH says that the polls were wrong bc of “correlated errors”, so that the polls were all skewed in the similar (incorrect) way. I too hope that the advisers will keep Trump’s finger off the nuclear trigger (and off Twitter!), and that the civil rights of everyone who is not a white cisgender male will not be trampled.

  255. “One of the giant questions they must address is whether we now live in an atmosphere of such far-reaching and stifling social disapproval of politically incorrect positions that a significant portion of respondents no longer feel comfortable expressing their actual beliefs to a pollster.”

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner

    I mentioned a few days ago that lots of people I know wouldn’t talk about their presidential votes, other than to say something vague about being forced to choose between the lesser of two evils. And the words used to describe the result, such as “stunning,” are interesting. Were those who voted for Trump among the stunned? Is this another Brexit, where even the folks who did vote for Trump did not expect him to win because they assumed they were in the minority?

    In addition, given that many households have dropped their landlines, and lots of people don’t respond to unfamiliar numbers on any phone, it’s not clear how many of those polls were based on a statistically accurate sample.

    I would hate to be running a polling outfit today.

  256. Scarlett,

    I also wonder how politicians will adjust to the lack of accurate polling. If you can’t focus group everything to death – how does that change the conversation?

  257. Scarlett – DS is still trying to ferret out whom I voted for but I will not tell him. He has tried to trick me into getting worked up and spill the beans.

    The governor of my state is not conceding the election yet.

  258. On NPR’s coverage last night the Republican talking head said outright that it was an semi-open dirty secret that many Republicans wanted Trump to lose. I think many are stunned this morning, in both parties.

  259. Scarlett, Smerconish was talking to some guys about that on POTUS this morning. Men who simply wouldn’t say out loud that they were voting for Trump, and would lie when asked, but then obviously did vote for him.

  260. Anyway, I thought Google and Facebook and Amazon already knew everything about us, down to our bowel movements and when we last trimmed our toenails. Shouldn’t they be aggregating all the data and simply telling us who will win? Screw the polls. Where’s Big Data when you really want a question answered?

  261. Polling is certainly complicated, but the observed poll inaccuracy fits with my relatives’ belief/observation that the viewpoint of working class people in the Rust Belt is ignored in the media. I’m not sure anyone works very hard to develop the channels to represent unpopular working class opinions until they are, very occasionally, revealed in an election like this.

    My uncle the firefighter, on female firefighters/election/political correctness in October, observed, “In general, few women can haul people out of burning buildings. Women struggle with quickly moving heavy hoses and even with long wrenches, they have trouble turning rusty valves on fire hydrants. A few of them can do it, but not many. But to keep our jobs, we have to pretend those things are not true.”

  262. I wonder how many female firefighters who can’t pass the physical are actually hired.

  263. RMS, it’s more whether the test represents the skills needed for extraordinary situations and if women actually are terminated if/when they fail a test over decades of service, similar to Milo’s example about the physical fitness of submarine radio operators in the military.

  264. RMS,
    That is a good point. Google certainly knows more about me than anyone else, including DH, who does not know about those shoes I have been considering on zappos.

  265. I wonder how Paul Ryan feels right now.

    Probably the same as Joe Biden, e.g. I could have been President.

  266. Among the many takeaways from this election is that the standard polling processes no longer work. I think it’s primarily because they aren’t reaching a representative sample of voters, not because people didn’t want to admit they were voting for Trump.

  267. Denver, I think they reach a representative sample, but as I said a couple weeks ago, they failed to correctly weight the likelihood of individual turnout from many trump supporters, assuming, incorrectly, that a failure to vote in 2012 indicated a poor likelihood of 2016 turnout.

  268. Trump will now be tweeting from the POTUS account. Wow. I’m still in shock. Not getting much work done today.

  269. The other thing is that the polls didn’t get it THAT wrong. He lost the popular vote. LATimes (told you Rhett) had him up about 3 or 4, IBD up one or two, same for Rasmussen, and a # had Hillary up by similar margins. It gets down to unthinkability bias and poll readers and the media saying about the +Trump ones “those can’t be right.”

    But a lot of state polling got it wrong, esp. in PA, VA, NC, MI, etc. Still, they had some with Trump ahead, but there was a lot of “can’t be right.” See Hampton University polling in Va.

    And I can tell you that at Reagan National, vendors are already selling Trump inauguration t-shirts with his likeness, so SOMEONE was clearly prepared.

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